Beauty 2025: The Hard Reset
The beauty boom of 2020-24 isn’t over, but it has changed character. Prestige sales just scraped along at zero growth in Q1 2025, while the mass channel inched ahead by +3 percent, its first lead in half a decade. Fragrance is still the sector’s life-of-the-party, propping up revenues even as price-sensitive shoppers trade down in basics.
Below is a no-fluff tour of what’s cracked, what’s cashing in, and where Black-owned brands can seize ground.
1 | What’s Cracked
Prestige plateau – Luxury makeup and skincare hit a wall; value and efficacy now trump the “lip-gloss index.”
DEI whiplash – Mass retailers that trumpeted 2020 pledges are rolling them back, trimming shelf commitments and marketing spend for BIPOC brands.
Capital drought – Black-founded beauty companies raised just $16 million in 2024, down almost 80 percent from 2022.
Regulatory drag – New MoCRA rules (facility registration, safety dossiers, GMP) raise costs for every indie, small-brand execs warn that the bill now starts in the mid-five figures before a single product ships.
2 | What’s Cashing In
Fragrance & Body Joy – Prestige fragrance still posts double-digit gains; scented body care from Bath & Body Works to Sol de Janeiro is exploding.
Derm-grade skin at mass price – CeraVe, La Roche-Posay and TikTok-native derm lines are thriving on proof-first marketing.
“Certified Inclusive” Brands – Labels that score on the 2025 SeeMe Inclusivity Index—e.l.f., Dove, Maybelline, Rare Beauty—are growing 1.5× faster than peers.
3 | The Equity Gap in Cold Numbers
Ownership vs. Spend – Black-founded brands capture just ≈ 2.5 percent of U.S. beauty revenue, while Black shoppers deliver 11 percent of all beauty dollars—about $9.4 billion in 2023 and still out-pacing market growth.
Shelf Reality – Sephora carries ~8 percent Black-owned brands—progress, yet far from the 15 percent pledge benchmark; mass retail trails even further.
4 | Who’s Winning Black Wallets (and Why)
Non-Black-owned winners with disproportionate Black share:
e.l.f. – $3 drug-store price tags plus 40-shade foundations (Certified Inclusive)
Dove – Body-positive marketing + melanin-friendly body care, now a bath-aisle growth engine
Bath & Body Works – Scent wardrobes resonate with fragrance-loving Black shoppers
Sol de Janeiro – Gourmand fragrance oils turned TikTok darlings, converting across skin-tone lines
Tom Ford / Gucci fragrances – Luxe juice in mini formats; accessible entry to prestige
They win because they solve for sensorial + science + shade and show up consistently in culture, not because they issue quarterly “solidarity” posts.
5 | Redefining Success for Black-Owned Brands
Success ≠ unicorn exit. In 2025, it looks like:
65 %+ gross margin even after retailer fees.
60 % repeat rate within 90 days on DTC or TikTok Shop.
Clinical & cultural IP (melanin-safe actives, scalp science, olfactive heritage).
Omnichannel proof before big-box roll-out.
Reg-ready ops—MoCRA files buttoned up on day one.
6 | The Playbook (Cliff Notes)
Lead with receipts, not rescue. Media fatigue with “Black brand as tragedy” is real; proof and performance drive credibility.
Own the white space. Shade-accurate complexion, scalp microbiome, and high-SPF minerals without grey cast remain underserved.
Use TikTok Shop as a velocity lab. Two-week sales data is your leverage in Sephora or Target line reviews.
Pool compliance costs. Form founder pods to share MoCRA testing and QA; indies report 30-40 % savings.
Court strategic money, not just VC. Beauty conglomerates still need inclusion narratives—and they write bigger, patient checks.
7 | Final Word
Prestige hype cooled; performative DEI has gone out of style; capital is cautious. Good. The stage is finally clear for founders who can balance clinical rigor with cultural precision and run real businesses, not just moments.
Black beauty doesn’t need another elegy. It needs EBITDA, IP, and shelf space that sticks. Let’s build that, so the next headline isn’t about a closure, but an empire.